The Sun, The Moon and The Stars

What are HIllary Clinton and Donald Trump promising the rust belt?

The sun, the moon and the stars.

Can either deliver?

Probably not.

Let Rust Belt Cities Die?

The latest from a junior professor who lives in Texas and thinks rust belt cities need to die off, or at least go fallow.

In The Atlantic, Professor Galen Newman of Texas A & M opines on his vacant land research.

http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2016/07/rust-belt-survival/492155/

The research has led to a discussion of "smart shrinkage" and "smart decline."

http://www.plannersnetwork.org/2010/04/smart-decline-and-planning-ideology/

We cannot ignore this kind of thinking, as it might influence politicians, and new solutions are needed. Detroit has something approaching 60 square miles of wasteland, so this is not so far fetched. 

We do not have to surrender though.

Unless there is some drastic change in Washington, the rust belt economies are in trouble for a long, long time.

Not something to make one cheerful.

Are We Too Late?

A hot phrase among the economists  and analysts who analyze the Rust Belt is "post-industrial."

This implies we have reached a tipping point at which advanced economies will dramatically reduce manufacturing activity and jobs (although output may not drop as far)  and will focus on service, health care, research and etc.

When NAFTA was passed we were told the displaced manufacturing workers would soon enough be moved to high value service jobs (apparently this meant pushing shopping carts around the parking lot of Wal-Mart).

Does the post-industrial mind set dominate Washington, guaranteeing policy hurting the Rust Belt?

Are Donald Trump's policies to bring back manufacturing jobs just a fantasy? Will Hillary Clinton's new found populism make a difference?

Can every Rust Belt city be like Pittsburgh?

Does anyone outside the Rust Belt really care?

Brexit, Trade Policy and Jobs

The chattering classes are all atwitter about the Brexit vote and the potential damage to globalization.

To date globalization has been good for:
1) rich people
2) bureaucrats
3) workers in developing countries

To date globalization has been bad for:
1) existing middle classes (U.S. and Britain for example)
2) blue collar workers in developed countries


The elites (politicians, economists, really rich people) are still determined to create the new world order, but are now even admitting, timidly, that maybe there are some victims.

Which is why we are faced with Brexit and Donald Trump.

Forbes List of 15 Fastest Growing U.S. Cities

http://www2.forbes.com/business/the-fastest-growing-u-s-cities-the-latest-numbers

Number of Rust Belt cities on the list?

"0"

Upcoming Topics

Urban Policy in the Rust Belt

Infrastructure Policy in the Rust Belt

Construction Workforce in the Rust Belt

Manufacturing Workforce in the Rust Belt

Mama Don't let Your Babies Grow Up to Be Manufacturing Workers? 

Rust Belt Cities - Single Party Government

Will Air Conditioning Destroy the Rust Belt?

Trade Policy - Selling Out the Rust Belt?

.... and many more

Toledo tries......

http://www.toledoblade.com/Featured-Editorial-Home/2016/05/08/Progressive-and-possible.html

(c) 2016 The Blade Company

The Down Side of Manufacturing in the U.S.

From Forbes, (c) 2016

http://www.forbes.com/sites/davidkiley5/2016/05/10/why-u-s-manufacturing-workers-are-on-food-stamps-and-medicaid

Decades of efforts to depress blue collar wages have paid off, for the 1% anyway.

We will address this in detail in the near future.

Everybody Loves Flint

Suddenly everybody loves Flint.

People who cannot find Flint on a map love Flint.

People who would never think of spending time in Flint (or in Michigan) love Flint.

People who support economic policies that damage the rust belt love Flint – especially when there are tv cameras in the area.

People who are opposed to fixing and improving infrastructure love Flint infrastructure.

The orgy of Flint-loving is hypocrisy on steroids, but then we are all hypocrites about something.

Michigan Economic Development Program (sarcasm alert)

Michigan has a new economic development program!

By allowing the infrastructure to crumble, particularly the highways and roadways, the state is boosting business....

.....  for tire shops, alignment shops, body shops, car dealers.......

Sorry, "tired of buying tires."

Book Review

The gloomy future of the rust belt, in one very readable book.

The New Geography of Jobs
Enrico Moretti
Houghton Mifflin Harcourt 2012

Available used at on-line vendors.

NAFTA Rolls On - Carrier Corp. Goes South

The damage from NAFTA just keeps rolling on.

http://www.indystar.com/story/money/2016/02/10/carrier-move-indy-unit-mexico-eliminate-1400-jobs/80181804/

We think this could be fodder for the presidential campaign, as primaries move into the midwest.

Stay tuned.

Michigan's Job Recovery Deficit

The State of Michigan lost 858,400 jobs in the decade Y2000-Y2009.

University of Michigan economists project Michigan will recover 624,700 jobs during Y2010 and Y2018.

Much of the recovery so far has been driven by manufacturing, specifically the auto industry. Can this surge be sustained? History tells us the auto industry will dive during the next recession.

This was discussed during a semi-annual state budget conference in Lansing this week.

On a bright note, there may be steady improvement in “knowledge jobs.”

Growth is predicted to slow, not unusual for a period six years after the end of a recession.

Michigan’s population seems to have stabilized, after a period of prominence in the moving van surveys, but any substantial growth does not appear imminent.

The glory days are not set to reappear.

http://michiganradio.org/post/u-m-economists-predict-more-job-growth-michigan#stream/0

http://www.house.mi.gov/hfa/Consensus.asp

http://www.freep.com/story/news/politics/2015/01/14/michigan-budget-picture-worsens-corporate-tax-credits/21756881/

http://www.msbo.org/sites/default/files/jan16_jointpres.pdf